Here’s What Nate Bartlett and Industry Experts Say

If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But the reality is the numbers don’t support a crash. They point to slow, steady, and sustainable growth.

While prices will vary by region, and Sombrero Beach may see its own pace of change, national projections show continued appreciation, not decline, over the next five years.

What Experts Are Actually Predicting

According to the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), which gathers input from over 100 leading housing market economists each quarter, the consensus is clear:

• Home prices are expected to rise approximately 15% between now and 2029. 
• The most optimistic experts forecast growth closer to 26%. 
• Even the most conservative outlook anticipates around 5% appreciation. 

Not one of these expert groups is calling for a nationwide decline, and that includes markets like Sombrero Beach.

How Today’s Market Compares to Normal Trends

If you look back at the last 25 years, home values in the U.S. have typically appreciated 4–5% per year. The new forecasts call for 2–3.5% annual growth, slightly lower than average, but far more balanced and sustainable.

In 2020–2022, prices rose too fast due to record-low inventory and buyer competition. Some markets saw increases of 15–20% in a single year. What we’re seeing now is the market returning to a more stable rhythm, one that favors long-term strength over short-term spikes.

Why a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon

The idea that “what goes up must come down” doesn’t apply to housing. Historically, home prices have continued to rise because of one simple factor: supply and demand.

Even with higher interest rates and affordability challenges, there are still far more buyers than homes available. That imbalance continues to put upward pressure on prices, especially in desirable coastal areas like Sombrero Beach and Key Colony Beach.

This shortage is exactly why experts and local professionals like Nate Bartlett agree: the market isn’t collapsing, it’s stabilizing.

What This Means for Sombrero Beach

For homeowners in Sombrero Beach, this outlook is good news. It means your equity is holding strong and likely growing. For buyers, it means waiting for a crash may not be the best move, because prices are projected to keep climbing year after year.

The market is adjusting, not declining. And as balance returns, opportunities are emerging for both sides, especially when guided by a real estate professional who understands how to interpret the data and navigate local trends.

The Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, the data tells a different story. The question isn’t if prices will rise, it’s by how much.

Let’s connect to discuss what’s happening specifically in Sombrero Beach and how Nate Bartlett can help you make confident decisions in this evolving market.

Work With the Expert in Sombrero Beach

With 41 five-star Google reviews, $40M+ closed volume in 2025, and multiple industry awards, including Berkshire Hathaway’s Chairman’s Circle and Best Realtor of 2025, Nate Bartlett is proud to be one of the most trusted and top-performing REALTORS® in the Florida Keys.

Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing, work with Nate Bartlett, a proven leader who combines local knowledge, data-driven strategy, and modern marketing to help you succeed.